The Road to Hell is Paved with Assumptions

Every day about 8,000 Americans were dying before the onset of Covid19. A new pathogen means that this number will increase. We are in a changed world. We have some ability to influence by how much and for how long, but it will increase. Our leaders have to lead, and making these choices is very hard because you have to place an economic value on human life.

In the early days of the personal computer industry Osborne Computers was a shooting star which brought us the first portable PC. At the press conference where he announced his second generation product, Adam Osborne declared to the reporters there “Assumption is the root of all fuckups.” The announcement was a stupid move, because he was not ready to ship the product he announced and nobody wanted the product he had anymore. However, he was a smart man with that comment. Never has it been more true than for this pandemic.

I want to be careful. Faced with a new threat and no data, you have to rely upon assumptions as you deal with it. There is no alternative. I am not trying to attach blame to anyone. Can we please worry about the truth? The assumptions which follow generally fall into the category of conventional wisdom as defined decades ago by John Kenneth Galbraith. Politicians and the media in general at the time…